General
Dispatch Poll Analysis
As promised.
The dispatch poll has a history of being wrong on elections. See here, here This might give some comfort to Petro supporters but it shouldn’t and here’s why.
The dispatch poll is a self-selecting mail in poll. The self selecting portion means that the poll is skewed toward those who are more likely to fill out a questionnaire and mail it in. The poll turns out to be higher income, more education, and definitely a more politically active sample of the Ohio population.
For example, according to the crosstabs, 20% of Ohioans make over $90,000 a year. Only 17 out of 2500 respondents were black. And 18% have post-graduate degrees. that’s not right.
In a general election this leads to wild and wacky results. But in a primary, the sample might match the actual voting population a bit better. Not completely, but better.
Blackwell’s site is undeniably happy:
The Dispatch survey results combined with those of other recent polls provide undisputable evidence that Ken Blackwell is the clear favorite in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Following are the comparative polling results:
Columbus Dispatch Poll: Blackwell leads Petro by 11 points
Tarrance Group Poll (for Betty Montgomery): Blackwell leads Petro by 17 points
Public Opinion Strategies Poll (for Greg Hartmann): Blackwell leads Petro by 10 points
Market Strategies Poll (for Ken Blackwell): Blackwell leads Petro by 10 points
McLaughlin & Associates Poll (for Ohio GOP): Blackwell leads Petro by 10 points
“Ken Blackwell has led Jim Petro in all publicly released polls since December 2004,” added Mastin. “We had hoped to focus our attention and campaign funds on the Democrats. Unfortunately, we will continue to campaign against a fellow Republican who has needlessly distracted our party and wasted our resources.”
At this point there is no official response from the Petro campaign.
So is Blackwell in the front? Undeniably yes. By how much? Probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 - 15 points. Hard to tell. The inclusion of a better sample of lower income and high school educated will not help Petro. Might hurt.
The fact that Petro is losing in a sample of higher educated, higher income politically activated GOP members in NE Ohio is devastating to the Petro campaign, he simply must win there if he has any chance.
Can Petro make up the ground? No, as noted by yours truly, the Petro campaign screwed up royally last year by positioning himself to the left of Blackwell. This gives Blackwell plenty of room to campaign simultaneously against Petro, Strickland, and Taft. And to paint them all with one broad brush.
The only chance Petro had was by painting himself as more electable than Blackwell in the general. The investigations and scandal ridden Taft administration have severely damaged that strategy and it should have been abandoned, but it’s too late now. (The Taft administration is not actually “scandal-ridden” but that’s the perception and he did have those golf games).
Petro had a great chance last year to paint himself as a new breed of Republican, talk about sweeping reform on conservative principles and campaign from the right. Instead everything was half-measures and talk of being a good manager. He succeeded in not scaring the GOP establishment and I guess that’s something, but not enough, not by a long shot.
Watch this space for more on the implications on this poll for the senate races and Democrat side of things.
Discussion
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The age demographics are interesting. I think it’s interesting to note that busy professionals who may take the time to vote in the primary probably wouldn’t respond to this poll. I would never mail back anything. First off, I do everything online. So this definitely is streamlined to an older or less technically savvy generation. I have no idea which candidate that would help or not help.
Regardless, a self-selecting sample seems sketchy to me - in either direction. Blackwell could have a huge advantage at this point or a small one. Hard to say. I think he definitely has an advantage, though.
The interesting point, I think, is that there are still about 1/3 undecided. Now, I think the key here is going to be whether these people come out to vote - whether they become impassioned to vote. The 1/3, to me, would appear to be the moderates. Those who maybe were for Betty and haven’t committed yet. Conventional wisdom would say that theoretically, they’d probably be for Petro. But if they’re not passionate either way, they might just stay home.
Another interesting point is to look to history. Blackwell has been adament about registering new voters, which is great. New religious voters. They definitely pump up his numbers. Maybe many participated in this poll. History will tell you that in the past 25 years the turn out for a Republican Primary in this state has not changed dramatically in numbers. Every year, it’s about 800,000. So, will more people turn out this year - more of the people who Blackwell has recruited? History tells us no, but I’m certainly not willing to trust history.
I still think that the election is to be decided on May 2. I could name prominent examples of campaigns that have been down and somehow managed to come back. I think a lot of it will hinge on which candidate can get his message out and how effective it is. The TV message. AND on who is inspired to show up on voting day.
One final note: a poll is a snapshot in time. The snapshot in this election has been shown to vary dramatically. Yes, Blackwell has always been up, but by different amounts. I’m still curious why he never released the poll he ran, but maybe the snapshot wasn’t in his favor at that one, minute moment.
Petro faces an uphill climb now. I wonder based on all of the negatvity, assuming he loses, if he will publicly back Blackwell. Usually I dont think losing candidate endorsements help, but it could this time.
BK, I think it would behoove whichever candidate who loses in the primary to publicly endorse the other. In that race, doing so will be crucial in order to defeat Strickland by a comfortable enough margin (so the dems will stop smelling blood in the water).
Petro’s people, in my opinion, will come out to vote for Blackwell if he wins, but from what I’m seeing on the other blog sites and from what I hear in day-to-day conversation, you won’t see the same from Blackwell supporters if Petro wins. I could be totally wrong, it’s simply what I hear.
There is a small faction here in SW Ohio who want things exactly their way and will not vote if they don’t get it. We have seen it before.
Hopefully, that doesn’t transcend races and they will see that both candidates have decent ideas, have defended the life issues, etc. The greater good is voting for the one chosen by the people on May 2nd.
I agree, DW. There is a SW contingent that just might stay home. Most, though, will just support the nominee.
The same is not the case for Moderates and Independents. While they’d choose Petro over Strickland, many would choose Strickland over Blackwell or not vote entirely.
There is a large faction in NE/NW/Central Ohio who feel this way. Not hard core Republicans, but people who regularly vote Republican but can’t fathom voting for Blackwell. This is a reality and why Blackwell is down 18 points (and gaining) in polls against Strickland.
[...] Martin gets a big fat DUH! from me. As governor, Blackwell can hire good managers. I could say more, but heck I’ve already said it a month ago… Can Petro make up the ground? No, as noted by yours truly, the Petro campaign screwed up royally last year by positioning himself to the left of Blackwell. This gives Blackwell plenty of room to campaign simultaneously against Petro, Strickland, and Taft. And to paint them all with one broad brush. [...]
[...] Yes, we all know that the dispatch poll is junk. Nevertheless there’s one interesting finding in the last one concerning the Pierce/DeWine race. Tip to BizzyBlog. [...]