General

Interesting Items from the UC/Ohio Poll

I didn’t get a chance to do this before because of the day job, the one that pays the bills, but there was lots of interesting items in today’s polling:
Undecideds in the governors race are around 7%, undecideds in the Senate race are about 2%

Blackwell is getting 20% of the black vote and 39% of the white vote.  But since the Black vote numbers moved the white vote just a teensy tiny bit, I’m betting that they didn’t talk to many Black folks.  That’s a better percent than Bush got but not by much.  It’d be fun to get a representative sample of Black voters, but it’s probably not going to happen.

Here’s an interesting one, Blackwell does best among college graduates.  Strickland good with everyone else.

Region   Strickland   Blackwell
NE          53            33

NW          48            41

Central    56            38

SE            56            25

SW            42            47

Ouch!  Blackwell doing poor in the SE and NE is expected, but doing poorly in NW and SW and being shellacked in Central (Columbus) is not good.  Blackwell rolled up 70% numbers in SW Ohio to win the primary and he is going to need that area to come back strong.

Highest undecideds were in the SE at 11% and highest support for the libertarian was in the NW at 6%

Party ID    Strickland     Blackwell

Dem         81               8

Ind           55               30

Rep          20               68

Doing some reverse engineering algebra voodoo means they probably sampled 219 Democrats and 212 Republicans.  I don’t know how many statewide elections and National elections the GOP wins in this state to get more sampled republicans in state polls, but apparently it’s not enough so far.  But not like significant things would change either way.

In the DeWine/Brown poll they have the Black vote as goin 38% to DeWine.  Which means they probably sampled a very low number of them.

Also DeWine is posting an 8 point advantage in Central Ohio, a 9 point advantage in SW Ohio, but a 22 point disadvantage in NW Ohio, hence his weakness.  I’m not sure what the trouble is up there, but we could be getting into sampling sizes again…
Taken together with the other polls shows that DeWine is probably in pretty good shape once his campaign starts pumping.  Sherrod really needed to open up a much larger lead to make it happen, but he has failed to do so.

Strickland on the other hand has what looks to be like a very good lead, and was able to do what Sherrod has not.

Blackwell must aim at getting the base GOP on his side, get more of them to the polls, and do better in SW Ohio and Central Ohio, and among independents.  We did see a huge GOTV effort in support of Chafee and we can assume the same thing is being planned for Ohio.

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