General
Abiding a Nuclear Iran is the Wrong Question
“Iran is not a suicide nation,” he said. “I mean, they may have some people in charge that don’t appear to be rational, but I doubt that the Iranians intend to attack us with a nuclear weapon.”The Iranians are aware, he said, that the United States has a far superior military capability.
“I believe that we have the power to deter Iran, should it become nuclear,” he said, referring to the theory that Iran would not risk a catastrophic retaliatory strike by using a nuclear weapon against the United States.
The question is not whether the US or the rest of the world could abide a nuclear Iran. The question, first is whether Israel can. The answer to that is no. A nuclear Iran will cause mass emigration from Israel which could be wiped off the map with three bombs. This means that at some point Israel will attempt to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. War will result.
Abizaid is answering the wrong question. The question is, how do we stop a Middle Eastern war between Israel and Iranian air forces? And the answer to that question is stop the Iranian nuclear program.
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Discussion
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I would agree, up to a point. Iran certainly doesn’t need to be enriching fuel the way they seem to be interested in when there are alternative civilian nuclear power systems available. If they weren’t interested in weaponry, they would be using one of the lower-yield systems, so it’s pretty clear what they’re after. They want nukes, and they probably bought the technical know-how from AQ Khan’s Atomic Emporium.
Be that as it may, I think Israel needs to drop the whole “official abiguity” smokescreen and just come out, admit they have nukes and be done with it. I can’t imagine a more effective deterrent to any aggressive moves by Ahmedinejad. Despite being a breach of the NPT (to which Israel is not a signatory in any event), I cannot imagine a more effective deterrent.
Besides, nukes are only valuable as a deterrent; they’re not usable offensive weapons in the minds of most sane people. While Ahmedinejad may be a radical Islamist demagogue, I don’t recall ever hearing about him being legitimately accused of either insanity or stupidity. Wiping Israel off the map (an impossible pipe dream) would automatically result in the reciprocal erasure of the Persian nation, and I doubt he’s willing to risk that. That remark was rhetoric likely intended for domestic consumption only.
The scary part is that Israel has already shown its willingness to act unilaterally on this front (the Osirak reactor attack). While Israel unquestionably has the right to defend itself, the concern is: what might such an Israeli attack provoke?
It’s all bad, no matter how the cards are played.
Israel has the deterrent capability, they acquired German subs that can launch nuclear cruise missiles. So even if Israel gets nuked they can retaliate.
This will be cold comfort to the dead israelis though (and palestinians).
Can they depend on Iran acting rationally?