politics
Hmmm… Not as bad as you’d think
The national polling is horrendous, but the state polling is … not actually.
Ohio (20) 48.5 45.8 Obama +2.7
Florida (27) 48.7 44.9 Obama +3.8
Nevada (5) 49.6 46.6 Obama +3.0
N Carolina (15) 48.0 46.8 Obama +1.2
Missouri (11) 47.4 47.8 McCain +0.4
Indiana (11) 45.0 48.8 McCain +3.8
Colorado (9) 49.3 45.3 Obama +4.0
W Virginia (5) 44.3 46.5 McCain +2.2
Virginia (13) 50.6 44.3 Obama +6.3
I mean it’s bad, really bad. don’t get me wrong, especially Virginia there on the end, but this is not a lost cause map… yet. Look at these numbers and consider what a four point push toward McCain would do.
I’ve never been excited about McCain and nothing in this campaign is changing my mind. I’d be willing to say forget it, but the facts just don’t justify it. Given these numbers it is still highly possible we can drag his sorry you-know-what across the finish line.
No wonder Obama and his minions are launching a no-holds-barred attempt to convince McCain to shut his campaign down early. They are still very vulnerable, especially to a negative campaign that by itself would shore up red states like North Carolina, Indiana all by themselves quickly and cheaply. Negative won’t do it all, but without it he has no chance. Thus the whining from the Obama camp about Ayers and such.
And where is McCain opening offices? Iowa?! Either the internals in Iowa are very different from the public ones or this is the stupidest campaign ever. And I would bet on the former before the latter (even though the latter wouldn’t exactly shock me)
McCain may have pulled out of MI but he’s still a big, big, big believe in PA. So is Obama, who continues to shovel big bucketloads of cash into the Keystone state. As well he should considering how complicated things could get if it flips.
And mostly because I have to go now, let’s end with a bad football analogy. (sorry Ben)
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4 comments for “Hmmm… Not as bad as you’d think”
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B. Hussein should be up by double digits everywhere. These numbers tell me that the squishy middle is just looking for that one thing that will give them an adequate excuse NOT to vote for Obama (even if it’s not FOR McCain). The problem is that McCain seems unable or unwilling to make his own case. All he needs to do is get out of his own way, and ask Rush (or me), “Give me my 30 second message for the last 3 weeks.” That’s all it needs. I listen to and read alot about politics, and there are farmers in Wisconsin and insurance agents in Ohio that are making a better case for McCain than his campaign is.
McCain’s mistake is in going negative.. Palin’s already got the base rallying behind him. McCain needs to step back from the guilt by association attacks and start talking about POLICY.
He needs a combination of both. negative stuff, if done right, does work. that is why it is done.
Agreed Ben.