SurveyUSA Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg Obama +9
FOX News/Rasmussen Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby Obama +5
Associated Press/GfK Obama +7
Quinnipiac Obama +9
Pretty good cluster around a 4-5 point margin for Obama. Judging by the internals on the Survey USA poll it’s certainly no larger than that, and could be quite a bit less. Many polls have been bad for oversampling NE Ohio and not including SE Ohio, when they include it at all.
Rasmussen shows a 5 point move toward Obama since last week, and Quinnipiac shows a 5 point move to McCain, resulting in the 6.3 average you see here.
Early voting is in full swing and Warren County from where I sit, is appearing to do the usual delivery of a 70% GOP margin.
The Ohio Poll had it +3% (+/- 3.3%) for Obama but within the margin of error. That one worries me because of their track record, but it was done 7-11 days ago so it has missed the recent McCain surge.