politics

OH, FL, VA, PA

Nielsen Wire -

Judging from this, it looks to me like we can make some judgements about what McCain thinks is safe for him.  He is not advertising heavily in IN, or WV.  Those states look pretty safe I’d guess.  WV definitely, but IN’s public polling still looks a little scary.

McCain is advertising slightly in MO and getting beat 2-1 with Obama ads, but it’s not a major focus now of either campaign:

Virginia is a heavier focus for both campaigns, but McCain was still being outspent yesterday. 

FL and OH, are as we expect, being carpet bombed by Obama ads, they are the top two targets of both campaigns with a heavy Obama advantage.

But PA continues to be a major focus and McCain almost has ad parity there with a promise to step it up over the last 72 hours and blitz all the states.

Now check out Jay Cost’s analysis of where the candidates are spending their time:

What is interesting is that some of McCain-Palin’s time has been
spent in Democratic strongholds. For sure, McCain has made appearances
in Defiance, a GOP stronghold in the northwest, and Lancaster, a GOP
bastion in metro Columbus. However, there have been visits to
blue-collar Democratic areas like Toledo, Elyria, and Steubenville.
These are the kinds of places John Kerry was visiting at this point in
the cycle in 2004. McCain-Palin has also hit several swing areas -
Mentor (in metro Cleveland), Dayton, and Hanoverton (just south of
Canton on I-77).

Overall, this has been a fairly balanced schedule, with both McCain
and Palin toggling between Democratic strongholds, Republican
strongholds, and swing areas. The only peculiarity I’d note is the
relative inattention paid to the southern third of the state. Palin
made a few stops in metro Cincinnati the week before, but McCain has
not been there in quite a while. That is a bit surprising. I’m also
surprised that there has been just one visit to Ohio’s sixth
congressional district (Steubenville). The sixth was a swing district
in 2004 that heavily favored Clinton over Obama in the primaries. I
would expect that, given fourteen total visits to the state, more than
one would be dedicated to the sixth district.

What about the Keystone State?

There were fewer visits in Pennsylvania this week, and Palin hosted
most of them. She held a rally in York, an exurban GOP stronghold that
will need to come in big for McCain-Palin. She also has spent a good
bit of time in the “Middle T” of the state, with visits to College
Park, Williamsport, and Shippensburg. These are “rallying the base”
visits with small town voters who have been loyal to the GOP for more
than a hundred years (though Penn State helps Democrats in College
Park). Note the visit to Erie, PA - a Democratic town that went for
Kerry in 2004. Palin also made a stop in Latrobe, on the outskirts of
metro Pittsburgh in Westmoreland County. She was in Beaver County the
week before - a working class county also in metro Pittsburgh that has
been trending toward the GOP in recent cycles. McCain, for his part,
made a trip to Pottsville, PA - which sits about halfway between
Harrisburg and Wilkes-Barre along I-81. They held a joint appearance in
Hershey, PA - just outside Harrisburg.

Interestingly, what we have not seen from McCain-Palin in the last
week are any trips to metro Philadelphia. The last time McCain was in
metro Philly was October 21st for a rally in Bensalem. Palin was last
there with a visit to Blue Bell on October 14th. This is an indication
that the GOP ticket is focusing on the central and western parts of the
state rather than the southeast. I discussed the logic of this earlier in the week.

So, what’s the bottom line? Again, time and money are scarce
resources. Candidates allocate them according to what they believe is
the best strategy to win 270 Electors. That McCain-Palin has
essentially planted itself in Ohio and Pennsylvania is an indication
that it thinks its time is of good use here. Combine that with its
enhanced advertising buys in these two states, and we can conclude that
Ohio and Pennsylvania are crucial components of its electoral strategy.

OH and PA are of course states where the minority vote is not nearly as big an obstacle as in other northern states.  That may be why they abandoned MI but stuck to PA.  Based on that, I think we can make a good judgement about what McCain thinks is his best shot to win.

First win the states that are leaning your way now.  IN, MO this should be doable.

Then win the states that are tied or within striking distance,  that’s FL, NC, and OH.  that’s doable with turnout, turnout, turnout.

Now McCain has 247 votes.  If he gets PA at this point, we’re at  268 and oh so close.  He can win the election then by either, stealing VA, or IA or NV.  Based on polling I’d say NV might be the easiest of those, but Jay notes that the candidates haven’t been out there for awhile and seem to have abandoned the west, but they are still pushing in VA and visiting IA. 

This is of course an uphill climb, but I think it’s McCain’s final plan and his best opportunity.

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