Ohio

Ohio Poll Update

Final Ohio polls put Obama as likely winner in Ohio - Openers - cleveland.com

The University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll today puts the race at 51.5 percent for Obama, 45.7 percent for McCain, outside the margin of error.

Quinnipiac University has Obama leading McCain 50-43 percent.

But Public Policy Polling puts it at 50-48 percent, or too close to call. Dean Debnam, president of this polling operation, says that “undecideds” have been breaking for McCain and that Obama has lost ground among white voters. Ohio “could definitely go either way on Election Day,” Debnam says in a release this morning.

Contrast that with the statement of Peter Brown, assistant polling director at Quinnipiac:

“Sen. Obama’s Ohio lead is based on his ability to be competitive among
whites, even those without college degrees. He also is keeping Sen.
McCain almost 15 points below the level of support among white
evangelical Christians that President Bush received four years ago.

I take the Quinnipiac quote as a sure sign that they are likely not getting a representative sample of OH.

So here’s what we have in recent polling:

PPP (D)	10/31 - 11/02	1208 LV	2.8	50	48	Obama +2
Reuters/Zogby	10/30 - 11/02	605 LV	4.1	50	44	Obama +6
Quinnipiac	10/27 - 11/02	1574 LV	2.5	50	43	Obama +7
Mason-Dixon	10/29 - 10/30	625 LV	4.0	45	47	McCain +2
SurveyUSA	10/26 - 10/27	648 LV	3.9	49	45	Obama +4
Columbus Dispatch*	10/22 - 10/31	2164 LV	2.0	52	46	Obama +6

The Dispatch is right out.  Survey USA we only like if it corroborates with other polls and it seems to be splitting the diff here.  Zogby is telephone interactive and utter junk.

that leaves PPP, Quinny, MD, and the OH poll.  Let’s look at movement:

PPP shows a 5 point movement to McCain in the past week.

Quinnipiac showing a 2 point movement to McCain from last week and a 8 point movement from two weeks ago.

Ohio Newspaper poll showing a 3 point movement to Obama

As noted, Quinny has been on the Obama side of things in most I do respect the Ohio Newspaper poll, but I also respect MD and the fact that PPP is a Democratic pollster that usually leans Democratic.  If Rasmussen comes out today with a poll within the MOE I’m going to remain solid in my feeling that OH is a tossup state and could go either way.  It’s going to depend on turnout and that might spoil a lot of pollster predictions.

Also many of these orgs continue to oversample NEO.  We’ll see.

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