politics
Bill Kriston on Threading the Needle
Consider this my contribution to making the Liberal/Progressives sweat bullets…
So liberals shouldn’t be too upset at the idea of McCain winning. Could it happen?It’s possible. What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He’d have to take Florida and Ohio, where he’s about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.
McCain’s path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) — or New Hampshire, where he’s 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.
As for Pennsylvania, two recent polls have McCain closing to within four points. Pennsylvania is the state whose small-town residents were famously patronized by Obama as “bitter.” One of Pennsylvania’s Democratic congressmen, John Murtha, recently accused many of his western Pennsylvania constituents of being racist. Perhaps Pennsylvanians will want to send a little message to the Democratic Party. And that could tip the election to McCain.
It’s an inside straight. But I’ve seen gamblers draw them.
Obama underperformed PA primary RCP average by 3 points. The Morning Call PA tracking poll was at 13 points a week ago. Today it’s at 6. Something to think about.
Tags: polling Discussion
3 comments for “Bill Kriston on Threading the Needle”
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After 40 years as a card-carrying Republican, I’ve decided to vote for Obama. I am a fiscal conservative and a social moderate. The party has taken a wrong turn, toward divisiveness and incompetence and fiscal irresponsibility.
Under the current leadership, the size of the federal government has increased and the national debt has doubled. In addition to budget deficits we have off-book spending to finance the war. They’re trying to demonize Obama as tax-and-spend, but borrow-and-spend is even worse in my book.
I think it is pretty clear that total deregulation has failed in every case. The free market system is an appealing ideal, but it has led to unchecked greed and has ruined the economy.
I strongly supported the war in Afghanistan. Going after Bin-Laden in his cave is the right thing to do. Invading Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 or Al-Qaida. Those with dissenting opinions were ignored and smeared. (e.g. Valerie Plame)
To me, true conservatism means less government intervention in our lives. The Republican Party is toward ever more intervention, from wiretaps to Terry Schaivo. Many of these are hot-button issues meant to capture single issue voters. This has led to winning elections but the abandonment of true conservative values.
There is no evidence that trickle-down economics and tax cuts for the wealthy have created jobs or helped grow the economy. On the contrary, history shows little correlation between tax rates and job creation. Under current party leadership, the middle class has jobs and experienced a decline in real income.
John McCain continues to advocate tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation, and an indefinite continuation of the war in Iraq. I think we have pretty clear evidence that those policies are wrong. It’s definitely not working for me. I’m voting for Obama
If you believe that Obama will intrude less on your life, you are truly deluded.
Very nice comment Steve. I don’t think you are alone. Welcome aboard the O-train. You get preferred seating in C class. Enjoy the ride.
Dave, who is Bill Kriston?
I’m always nervous on election day, but to say I’m sweating bullets is a stretch. I think Progressives are in pretty good shape going in to tomorrow. Got laughed at for predicting a $100 million month for Obama (see September), I’m sure some will laugh at my prediction of it not being close…but it won’t be close.