General

Election Results Thread

—11:35—
OK signing off now, fellow bloggers and political junkies. Feel free to leave a comment or email at d a v e at nixguy.com. Look for more analysis in the morning. But for really good analysis I’ll need turnout figures and canvass reports from all the counties, that should take a week or so.

—11:33—
National Review’s Buzz was all over this and gave fellow blogger RAB a mention. Congrats!

—11:28—
Hackett Concession speech on now. “First time in 40 years, Democracy has come to southern Ohio”. 9,000 online donors. $400k raised online. Democracy won. We won. voters won. Voters had a choice.

Chaennel 12 cut him off just after that. Spinning it positive. It’ll be ten times as difficult next time if he wants to run again.

— More Final Analysis —

SwingStateProject is declaring this a big victory for Democrats. Yeah I guess that’s true because the Democrats have learned that:

If their candidate pretends to be a Republican…
They swarm the candidate with a lot of $$$…
They Blogswarm the candidate and attack the Republican…
And if the Righty blogosphere does nothing to respond…
And if the Republican is hampered by spending all the money in the primary…
They put hundreds of volunteers on the street…
In a low turnout election…
When nothing else is going on in the whole freaking country…

They still lose.

MWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Sorry, couldn’t resist. All done gloating now.

Ok. One more.

MWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

—11:07—
Oh BTW Harlan Twp Fire Levy passed. We get to keep the truck! Yeah!

—11:03—
WCPO calls it for Schmidt, Victory speech on Channel 9 now, woohoo!

—10:58—
DINGDINGDING we have a winner.
Clermont is all in and as suspected, heavily favored schmidt and boosted her margin to 4000 votes. Outside the recount cutoff. If Hackett wants a recount, he’s paying!

DEM - PAUL HACKETT 55151 48.25%
REP - JEAN SCHMIDT 59132 51.74%

Remember, I called it at 9:44 (ththttphhtp to WCPO - ok must get mature again)

—10:51—
while we’re waiting for more news, a little preliminary analysis.

We don’t have complete numbers, but it appears that Hackett did very well at turning out his base in Hamilton, and also did extremely well in the upriver counties. However he was not able to overcome republican strongholds in Warren and probably Clermont county as well.

Schmidt was outspent, outhustled, outmaneuvered. Hackett was more organized, on message, knew that he had to tone down the Dem rhetoric and he did, while simultaneously turning out the Dem base. A neat trick and he did it.

He still lost. Probably. We’ll see.

—10:44—
Ok back, and much, much cleaner. With more soda!

RAB reports that MyDD reports that ballots are being counted by hand in Clermont. So it really is the little old ladies and card tables…

—10:34—
Okay nothing going on. I’m going to take the opportunity to take a shower, which I haven’t done since I got back from the gym two hours ago and I’m getting a little ripe now. Mrs. Nixguy won’t like that.

Plus a reload of diet Mountain Dew would be nice. Maybe some salsa. mmmmm.

—10:31—
SERVICE UNAVAILABLE on the clermont county returns site. I think that’s a big message from the network admins saying, “go away, leave us alone, we’re working on it already.”

—10:24—
Bizzyblog reports that WXIX reports that Clermont having humidity problems with punch card readers. Doh!

Of course y’all came here from bizzyblog so you already know that!

I say that the race is over unless Hackett can pull a ton of Hackett votes in the rest of Clermont, which he can’t, which means it’s over.

—10:18—
And we’re back up, technical difficulties at the hosting site, hosting server decided to die on us. Good timing too!

—9:55—
Ohio Automatic Recount statute.

In 1984, the statute was amended again, and small-margin recounts became truly automatic. Thus, when the margin of victory in a statewide race is less than one-quarter of one percent, a state-funded recount occurs automatically, even without the request of the losing candidate. However, the losing candidate can still choose to affirmatively call off the recount process: language was added to R.C. 3515.03 to allow a losing candidate to submit a request in writing to have the automatic recount stopped before it begins. 1984 Ohio Legis. Serv. 5-79 (Baldwin). Furthermore, if the margin of victory is larger than 0.25% in a statewide race, the losing candidate can still apply for a recount, but again under this longstanding provision the state will only pay for the recount if it results in a large enough change in the results of the election.

Margin of victory 0 - 0.25: automatic state funded recount
0.25 - 0.5: state funded recount at candidate request
0.5 on up: - candidate request and candidate cost.

—9:52—
RAB says if Hackett stays close we are in the Automatic recount margin. Oh boy.

—9:49—
blog.oh02.com appears to be down. Server crashed I bet.

–9:44—
That’s what I’m talkin about.
Hamilton reporting 85% of the vote in and this is where we stand

DEM - PAUL HACKETT 46265 48.95%
REP - JEAN SCHMIDT 48256 51.05%

If this is correct, the only counties outstanding are Scioto and Clermont, Judging from the Clermont numbers we have, no way Paul Hackett wins this race.

If, and that’s a big if with the way these results are coming in, Hamilton is counted, he has lost the race.

9:44 I call Schmidt the winner by a very close margin. Take that stupid WCPO!

—9:39—
Can you even imagine following this without Mozilla Firefox and tabbed browsing? You know what I mean.

—9:38—
WCPO reporting a 3k vote lead for Schmidt with maybe 66% of the vote in.

—9:35—
I’m picturing a bunch of nice little old ladies sitting around a card table at Clermont County Headquarters. Counting. Very. Slowly.

—9:32—
WCPO reporting better results, and Schmidt has taken the lead! Clermont county figures are kicking in.

I could do better, but A. Hamilton is not updating, and B. Even when they do update, they do not break out the county numbers. Grrrr.

—9:24—
Finally some Clermont results:
Early Voting Election Day Provisional Total Percentage
JEAN SCHMIDT 1158 6711 0 7869 56.24%
PAUL HACKETT 750 5349 0 6099 43.59%

She is up by 1800 votes so far in Clermont, half the precincts reporting. This will start to change things in her direction in the overall numbers.

—9:23—
Also check out the FR open results thread. But feel free to stop back.

—9:18—
Dumdedumdum

Sure would like to sneak a peak at some Clermont results.

Bizzyblog and RAB also keeping up to date.

—9:17—
Results update:
DEM - PAUL HACKETT 30322 50.45%
REP - JEAN SCHMIDT 29776 49.54%
Jean down by about 500 now, has cut her loss. Still ZERO clermont results. I’d have to say this is starting to look like a near miss for Hackett.

—9:15—
Warren all in and provides Schmidt with a 2,000 vote margin.
PAUL HACKETT DEM 5,420 41.77
JEAN SCHMIDT REP 7,556 58.23

Not nearly as big a margin as it should be. Hackett has had an effect. 25% turnout.

—9:13—
Still no results from Clermont, With Schmidt losing by a small margin, the Democrat conspiracy theories are about to kick in any time now.

—9:04—
Okay never mind, the Hamilton County total is the overall total. Not just Hamilton, last time I had a Hamilton only link and I can’t find link now. So according to that Schmidt is 1500 votes behind overall.

The good news in that for Schmidt is that there are no Clermont totals at all in that number. Which should be ominous for Hackett. Don’t pop the champagne yet Hackett people!

—8:59—
Pay no attention to that WCPO link, I beat them in the primary and I’ll beat them tonight, looking at raw county info as soon as it’s posted. They might have a reporter stationed in the county rooms, but from their speed it does not appear so.

—8:54—
OK Finally got a download off of Hamilton and boy is this going to be a fun night…
Schmidt Hackett
Brown 3289 2519
Clermont 1158 750
Hamilton 13549 14676
Warren 4608 3523
Total 22604 21468

Schmidt still winning, but Hackett doing extremely well in Hamilton. 25% of results in Hamilton so far.

—8:51—
Schmidt Hackett
Brown 3289 2519
Clermont 1158 750
Hamilton
Warren 4608 3523
Total 9055 6792

Warren continues to provide good margin, need Hamilton numbers, dagnabit!

—8:49—
MyDD is reporting Schmidt leading in Hamilton

Schimdt leads 54.66-45.34. 3800 votes in.

—8:45—
This is going to be a long night without a Hamilton results page. That county is going to make it or break it, by far the biggest population of voters. Unfortunately I think we are the center of the political universe and it’s getting hammered.

Clermont is showing only the absentees with the numbers below. Clermont is Schmidts home base and why she won the primary.

—8:40—
This thread will be continuously updated.

It appears that the Hamilton County site is taking a beating, but here is what I have so far… Biggest upset is Brown County, where Hackett looks very good. Schmidt is winning in Warren and Clermont, but I don’t think the really conservative parts in warren are there yet, so look for her lead to increase. Looking for a good Hamilton link now.

Schmidt Hackett
Brown 1692 2279
Clermont 1158 750
Hamilton
Warren 1327 1122
Total 4177 4151

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