General
The Final Ohio Registration Numbers
First off, thanks to Ralph who alerted me to the Ohio SOS posting.
I inputted the numbers into my spreadsheet.
In a perfect replay of 2000,
If Each county in Ohio voted according to the same percentages Republican and Democrat
With the same turnout figures
Bush gets 157,431 more votes
Kerry gets 120,780 more votes than Kerry did.
That makes for a 37,000 vote advantage which would increase Bush’s margin of 166,000 to over 200,000.
Keep in mind that I did not factor out the huge 163,000 Franklin increase which was due almost entirely to their not purging any inactive voters. Franklin was almost half/half so it did not matter that much in the final tally. I left it in.
Here are the top counties that lost voters
Hamilton -12,373
Urban Cincinnati mainly, 54% Bush but main declines are in City of Cincinnati, Democrat areas.
Belmont -7,052
Appalachian down near WV. Hard times and hard population loss. County went 54% for Gore in 2000.
Jefferson -5,623
Another Appalachian county. Bush/Gore 43/50
Cuyahoga -4,919
The Democratic Home base of Ohio. Lost much more than this but were replaced by 160,000 newly registered voters that historically vote at a 47% turnout. ouch.
Ashtabula -3,464
Far NE corner. Apparently in severe decline.
Bush/Gore 45/50
Athens -3,256
Home of Ohio University in a rural county. So much for getting the students energized. P. Diddy washed out here. Bush/Gore 38/52
Now for the top growing counties:
County - % voted for Bush in 2000 - New Registered Voters in 2004
Franklin 48% 163,771 - no inactive voter purge + lots of registration activity = 277,000 inactive voters on rolls unable to vote.
With a few exceptions these are all Suburban counties experiencing high to normal population growth.
Warren 70% 29,383
Stark 49% 27,145
Butler 63% 21,842
Delaware 66% 20,544
Montgomery 48% 20,124
Medina 56% 15,795
Mahoning 35% 15,128
Summit 43% 14,669
Richland 57% 13,300
Licking 60% 12,600
Clermont 67% 11,637
Lorain 43% 10,619
Fairfield 62% 9,954
Conclusions: If the Bush campaign can get his people turned out, he wins Ohio handily.
click more for the complete county figures
County reg inc/loss net bush net Kerry
Adams 46 17 9
Allen 224 94 46
Ashland 3,859 1685 832
Ashtabula -3,464 -936 -1035
Athens -3,256 -653 -886
Auglaize 4,401 2112 853
Belmont -7,052 -1729 -2188
Brown 1,967 732 436
Butler 21,842 8745 4685
Carroll 1,001 353 260
Champaign -1,416 -487 -315
Clark 133 41 42
Clermont 11,637 4803 2133
Clinton 1,069 437 213
Columbiana 4,239 1244 1179
Coshocton 1,613 631 428
Crawford -1,753 -652 -376
Cuyahoga -4,919 -935 -1752
Darke 2,202 904 472
Defiance 64 24 15
Delaware 20,544 9393 4393
Erie -260 -75 -83
Fairfield 9,954 4092 2327
Fayette 1,380 533 315
Franklin 163,771 47517 48515
Fulton 721 299 176
Gallia 1,886 653 424
Geauga 2,875 1169 705
Greene 6,818 2633 1739
Guernsey 2,677 896 727
Hamilton -12,373 -4311 -3412
Hancock 3,273 1482 621
Hardin -795 -287 -184
Harrison 717 222 217
Henry 182 80 41
Highland 3,425 1343 735
Hocking 1,488 503 394
Holmes 1,323 533 163
Huron -97 -32 -21
Jackson 879 265 195
Jefferson -5,623 -1530 -1779
Knox 1,831 698 372
Lake 7,307 2474 2223
Lawrence -2,608 -742 -670
Licking 12,600 4742 2959
Logan -1,088 -423 -212
Lorain 10,619 2738 3415
Lucas 3,631 892 1318
Madison 256 98 58
Mahoning 15,128 3409 5832
Marion 1,535 500 381
Medina 15,795 5753 4103
Meigs -1,037 -367 -235
Mercer 6,227 3100 1294
Miami 5,404 2107 1261
Monroe -806 -227 -260
Montgomery 20,124 5943 6203
Morgan -47 -17 -11
Morrow 3,065 1135 655
Muskingum -2,803 -928 -692
Noble 471 192 129
Ottawa 1,525 526 504
Paulding 122 45 29
Perry 5,378 1913 1751
Pickaway 890 327 201
Pike -735 -192 -177
Portage 9,011 2533 2818
Preble 419 169 96
Putnam 467 249 79
Richland 13,300 4885 3334
Ross 4,063 1413 1203
Sandusky -1,361 -457 -372
Scioto -1,717 -519 -483
Seneca 2,057 794 545
Shelby -1,118 -472 -249
Stark 27,145 8810 8490
Summit 14,669 4006 4960
Trumbull -2,471 -590 -982
Tuscarawas -1,890 -642 -522
Union 4,219 1868 818
Van Wert -741 -294 -143
Vinton -68 -22 -16
Warren 29,383 14707 5826
Washington -88 -33 -22
Wayne 7,277 3021 1724
Williams 89 33 18
Wood 6,777 2200 1815
Wyandot 667 269 149
TOTAL 157431 120780
Discussion
Comments are disallowed for this post.
Thanks for the kind word. They e-mail me late this afternoon.
You are more then welcome. I also knew you could look at better then I could. Three more points.
1. After the election over, in fact on the SOS site, they will determine turnout county by county. I would bet money that the democratic counties will lower turnout % then the republican ones. Mainily because, other then Franklin, they have inflated voter registration rolls.
2. Stark and Montgomery counties also added voters even as thier 2000 to 2004 population was stagnant. I believe they are overregistered due to people moving in and out from local counties. Thats a net, however, since one leans rep. and the leans democratic.
3. Lorain, Mahoning, and Summitt counties , however, lean heavily democratic. They had voter registration increases even as their population has declined. Their rolls as over stocked with inactive voters as Franklin county. This is great for the republicans because these counties added new voters, but did remove old ones. Need proof nearby Trumbell county is democratic and is also declining in population. It trimmed its rolls. The number of voters fell from 145,000 to 142,000 from 2000 to 2004. Mahoning county is now registered at 103% of Voting age population. Lorain and Summitt is high too.
See those turnout numbers tommorrow and Mahoning will be less then 60%. State average will be around 66%.
GOTV please in Ohio
Thanks for your site
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