Lisbon – Portuguese economy expected to decline by 1.9% in 2013, in particular due to the severe implemented austerity measures announced Wednesday the Portugal Bank in estimates that are more pessimistic than those formulated previously.
In its economic bulletin of winter, the Bank of Portugal reviewed its economic forecasts for this year, and table now on a contraction of its economy from 1.9%, against a decline of 1.6% of GDP during its previous estimates. The Bank justified this contraction more accentuated by the implementation in 2013 of severe austerity measures that will contribute to “a significant revenue drop” and internal demand, as well as by a context of “less favorable global economic growth” which will have “a negative impact on growth in exports,” the main driver of the Portuguese economy.
This estimate is also more pessimistic than the Government forecast, the Portugal international creditors, who expect a recession of 1% this year, while the OECD expects a decline of 1.8% of GDP.
The Portugal adopted a budget of drastic rigor in order to respect the commitments made to international creditors, which granted a loan of EUR 78 billion in May 2011. In Exchange, Lisbon is committed to reduce its deficit to 5 percent of GDP this year, and then to 4.5% of GDP next year.
On the other hand, the Central Bank expects a recovery of the economy in 2014, with a growth of 1.3% of GDP if the Government does not implement new measures of rigour “different from those planned for 2013. “The growth to 2014 based on a moderate recovery in internal demand” supported by “a rise in exports thanks to a resumption of global economic activity,” said the Bank of Portugal.
Fitch expresses cautious optimism
London – One of the most important global rating agencies testified to a cautious optimism Tuesday, believing that the worst of the crisis budget European is now over and that the euro will emerge intact. Fitch Ratings said that the 17 eurozone countries give signs of improvement in areas such as competitiveness, and the worst austerity measures adopted by countries such as the Greece are now a thing of the past. However, a European Director of Fitch, Douglas Renwick, warned that it will take almost a decade to clear all the consequences of the crisis and that the markets could remain volatile this year, particularly because the elections expected in Germany and in Italy and the low economic growth in Europe.